El Arte De La Astrolog A Predictiva. Author by : Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Languange : en. Publisher by : Random House. Format Available : PDF, e. Pub, Mobi. Total Read : 8. Total Download : 8. File Size : 4. 2,8 Mb. Description : The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/1. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the . We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world.
El Arte De La Astrolog A Predictiva. El Arte de la Interpretaci. El arte de la astrolog. La naturaleza de los tr In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.
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